NZ fertility rate still well below replacement level

Data released last month showed that, as of June 30, the total fertility rate was 1.57 births per woman, marginally up from 1.55 a year earlier. The rate has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 since 2013.

The estimated population of New Zealand was 5.3 million as of June 30. Treasury has warned about the cost of an ageing population being supported by a smaller number of working taxpayers.

Infometrics lead demographer Nick Brunsdon said that, even with average net migration of 30,000 a year, New Zealand’s population will start declining in the 2050s.

He said with most households needing two earners, having children was more challenging. He also noted a net loss of population in the 20- to 34-year-old age group.

“More young Kiwis are deciding to leave than come here so the challenge is going to get more acute in the coming years because if you’re losing the 20 to 34-year-olds they’re not going to be here having kids,” Mr Brunsdon said.

Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said birthrates are falling worldwide, and there is a reasonable amount of evidence that unaffordability of housing affects birthrates.

“It means that people form families later in life. It means they are having fewer children . . . the short answer is to do things that improve the lives of everyone in the country and then population trends will change as a side effect of it.”

That could mean cheaper housing and an increased variety of options to meet different stages of life, he said.

“More generally just making kind of housing development more family-friendly – access to transport and things like that.”

That could not only help family size, but might also encourage people to stay in the country, Mr Gordon said.

Cash incentives to have children were not seen as a likely solution to the fertility rate decline.

FULL STORY

What will encourage NZers to have more babies? (By Susan Edmunds/Radio New Zealand)