Inclusion of NZ stats sees UK assisted dying estimate rise

Government officials have raised the central estimate from around 13,500 deaths to more than 25,000. The figures were published in a new impact assessment for a revived assisted dying bill before the House of Commons.

MPs are due to vote on the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill on September 11. The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults with six months or less to live to seek an assisted death, subject to approval by two doctors and a multi-disciplinary panel.

The bill was brought forward as a private member’s bill, after a similar bill failed in the House of Lords. A rarely used provision could overrule the peers this time.

Officials had previously based their number of assisted deaths estimate on data from six US states, excluding jurisdictions with fewer than five years of experience.

But a new Department of Health and Social Care report cuts that threshold to two years after officials found “limited evidence to support a ‘levelling off’ in the growth rate [of assisted deaths] after five years”.

It means data from New Zealand, where uptake has been substantially higher than in the US states, is now included.

Officials also modelled a separate scenario in which assisted dying in the UK tracks New Zealand’s rate, currently about 1.3 per cent of all deaths. That produces 81,524 deaths over a decade in England and Wales, including 9810 in year 10 alone.

The assessment said assisted dying in New Zealand “may be higher and grow faster” because doctors there can administer the fatal drugs themselves, including directly into a vein.

Under the bill before the UK Parliament, patients must take the final step themselves. A doctor could set up an intravenous system, for example, but the patient would have to press the button that released the drugs.

But some experts state that intravenous delivery itself may help explain higher uptake. 

Several Catholic bishops have raised concerns about the UK bill, along with many religious and non-religious organisations, including advocates for people living with disabilities and charities supporting survivors of domestic abuse, Crux Now reported.

FULL STORY

Assisted dying will end almost twice as many lives as expected (By Janet Eastham/ The Telegraph – subscription required)

Six in 10 people support return of the assisted dying bill to parliament (The Independent)

British bishop slams assisted suicide bill as bad and unnecessary (Crux Now)